Since software development projects often fall into runaway
situations, detecting signs of runaway status in early stage of
development has become important. In this paper, we propose a new
scheme for the prediction of runaway projects based on an empirical
questionnaire. We first design a questionnaire from five viewpoints
within the projects: requirements, estimations, planning, team
organization, and project management activities. Each of these
viewpoints consists of questions in which experience and knowledge
of software risks are included. Secondly, we classify projects into
``runaway'' and ``success'' using resultant metrics data. We
then analyze the relationship between responses to the questionnaire
and the runaway status of projects by the Bayesian
classification. The experimental result using actual project data
shows that 33 out of 40 projects were predicted correctly. As a
result, we confirm that the prediction of runaway projects is
successful.