During the process of software development, senior managers often find
indications that projects are risky and take appropriate actions to
recover them from this dangerous status. If senior managers fail to
detect such risks, it is possible that such projects may collapse
completely.
In this paper, we propose a new scheme for the characterization of
risky projects based on an evaluation by the project manager. In order
to acquire the relevant data to make such an assessment, we first
designed a questionnaire from five viewpoints within the projects:
requirements, estimations, team organization, planning capability and
project management activities. Each of these viewpoints consisted of a
number of concrete questions. We then analyzed the responses to the
questionnaires as provided by project managers by applying a logistic
regression analysis. That is, we determined the coefficients of the
logistic model from a set of the questionnaire responses. The
experimental results using actual project data in Company A
showed that 27 projects out of 32 were predicted correctly. Thus we
would expect that the proposed characterizing scheme is the first step
toward predicting which projects are risky at an early phase of the
development.