Osamu Mizuno,Daisuke Shimoda,Tohru Kikuno,Yasunari Takagi
This paper presents an enhancement of a software project simulator
to perform risk prediction with cost estimation capability.
So far, we have developed a software project simulator to simulate
software development projects. In this simulator, a development
process was described using Petri net model, and it was applied to
some actual project data in a certain company successfully. On the
other hand, we have also presented a risk predicting system to find
``risky projects by statistical analysis on risk questionnaire for
project managers. In this approach, only the probability to be risky
was calculated for a project. Thus, the managers in the company
wanted to know a concrete proof why a software project becomes
risky.
In this paper, to present the proof that a software project becomes
risky, we try to enhance the previous project simulator so that the
simulator can deal with risk factors. To consider the risk factors,
we modify the previous simulator so that both the fluctuation of
skill level and the deadline pressure can be represented by the
parameters in the simulator. By using a case study, we confirm that
the enhanced simulator can estimate the development cost under some
typical risks. As a result, we can expect that the simulator shows
how much the development cost of a risky project exceeds an
estimate.
Osamu Mizuno,Daisuke Shimoda,Tohru Kikuno,Yasunari Takagi
Osamu Mizuno,Daisuke Shimoda,Tohru Kikuno,Yasunari Takagi
242
0.346 (2001)
IEICE Transactions on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences
11
11
2812-2821
0
Enhancing software project simulator toward risk prediction with cost estimation capability
http://search.ieice.org/bin/summary.php?id=e84-a_11_2812&category=A&year=2001&lang=E&abst=
E84-A
2001